World: China’s demand for grains and oilseeds expected to continue into next crop year

China’s actions – more than all other market factors – have moved world markets up by an average of US$30-40 since early September, H. M. Gauger GmbH reported earlier this month.

The Chinese crop is reported more or less unchanged from a year ago; the government sold more than 50 mln tonnes of their national reserve to the market, which ought to be replaced.

Corn prices at the Dalian Commodity Exchange are close to US$400 per tonne, as compared to US$165 on the BoT Chicago. Corn and wheat imports are theoretically limited by national TRQ’s, but the limits have already been surpassed.

Soybeans, barley, and sorghum imports are unrestricted. China has purchased around 1 mln tonnes of new crop barley for the 2nd half of 2021 from Europe and Canada.

Analysts have concluded from those purchases that the Chinese “demand pull” of grains and oilseeds will continue into the next crop year.

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